569
FXUS65 KVEF 270520
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1020 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry and seasonable weather conditions through at least Wednesday.

* Precipitation chances and cooler temperatures will return to the
  region later this week, continuing through the weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Relatively zonal flow aloft will allow dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures to continue through the middle of the week. A few
shortwaves will move through the Pacific Northwest today and
tomorrow, resulting in southerly breezes across the southern Great
Basin this afternoon. Southerly-to-southwesterly breezes will pick
up across the area on Tuesday, with peak wind gusts in the 15 to 25
mph range tomorrow afternoon. Seasonable temperatures will continue
through the middle of the week, with temperatures topping our right
around normal for the next few days.

This quiet start to the week will give way to unsettled weather with
the pattern becoming more active later this week as persistent
troughing sets up over the West Coast. On Thursday and Friday
moisture will begin to push up the Colorado River Valley and into
adjacent counties, as Tropical Storm Vance moves into the Gulf of
California, causing moisture to "surge" up the gulf. This will
result in low-to-moderate (20 to 50%) chances of precipitation in
northwestern Arizona, southeastern Nevada, and the Colorado River
Valley on Friday as a shortwave moves through the area. The
aforementioned troughing will result in southwesterly flow aloft,
which will help draw a plume of moisture from the tropics towards
the coast of Southern California/the Baja Peninsula as we head into
the weekend. The exact trajectory of this moisture remains
uncertain, resulting in low confidence regarding precipitation
timing and amounts this weekend. The GFS ensemble mean favors a
solution where the moisture plume stays further south, which would
limit precipitation to the southernmost portions of our forecast
area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ensemble mean solution brings the
moisture slightly further north, resulting in more widespread
precipitation chances. In addition to uncertainty regarding the
trajectory of this moisture, there is uncertainty regarding the
magnitude of the moisture, which will directly impact precipitation
totals. To complicate matters further, a shortwave will accompany
this moisture plume, with interensemble discrepancies regarding the
strength of this shortwave resulting in even more forecast
uncertainty. All of this to say, this weekend`s forecast is shaping
up to be unsettled and wet, so make sure to follow along to stay
informed.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect
light winds overnight. Tuesday late-morning into the early-
afternoon, east-southeasterly winds will set up between 6 and 8 kts.
Winds will gradually veer as the day progresses, with south-
southeasterly winds mid-afternoon, then gusty south-southwesterly
winds late-afternoon. Gusts fall off after sunset. No operationally
significant cloud cover through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Expect generally light
and diurnal winds with gusty southerly winds in the afternoon at Las
Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites. KBIH will see an
isolated gust from the south-southeast in the afternoon and KDAG
will gust from the west-southwest in the evening. No operationally
significant cloud cover through the TAF period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Soulat

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office