053
FXUS65 KVEF 280808
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorm activity will be limited to Mohave County
  through Wednesday, with things drying out area-wide during the
  second half of the week.

* Above-normal temperatures persist, with dangerous and
  potentially record-breaking temperatures beginning Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Satellite and radar imagery earlier tonight showed a massive
complex of storms over Sonora and far southern Arizona. Hard to
imagine this activity won`t spur an MCV that spins up into western
Arizona later today. However, it should also be accompanied by a
fair amount of cloud cover, thus limiting instability. Have
increased PoPs across eastern Mohave County to 10-20% to account
for potential convective development this afternoon, but current
thinking is any activity should be quite isolated and favor the
high terrain. That said, if a robust storm can develop, strong
outflow winds and localized heavy rain are possible. Similar
potential exists on Wednesday before moisture decreases and high
pressure builds Thursday and beyond.

The main story continues to be the heat. High clouds from the
aforementioned MCV are already moved into our far southeastern
areas, and will continue to drift north this morning. This will act
as a blanket, keeping morning lows elevated. As they linger
throughout the day, high temperatures may be suppressed slightly,
but still expecting highs ~5 degrees above normal. Similar heat is
anticipated on Wednesday, but temps return to dangerous levels
Thursday through early next week thanks to a ~600dm ridge building
overhead. Daily and monthly records will be challenged (see CLIMATE
section below) as major to extreme heat risk spreads across the
region. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for all of our
valley locations from Thursday through Sunday, with Heat Advisories
for the higher mountain zones.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...South to
southwest winds will persist through tonight. A period of light
southeast winds (140 to 160 degrees true) is possible mid-to-late
morning, before moderate south to southwest winds become
reestablished by early afternoon.  Occasional gusts to 20 knots will
be possible during the afternoon and early evening, but should
subside around sunset. Temperatures will remain hot on Tuesday, with
readings exceeding 100F between 18Z and 05Z and peaking around 110F
late in the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Mainly light south to
southwest winds are expected area-wide through the night. On
Tuesday, breezy south to southwest winds are expected, with
occasional gusts to 25 knots in the afternoon. The exception will be
across the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where winds will
remain light through most of the afternoon before westerly winds
increase by evening.  VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     114(1978)*   115(1978)*   116(1979)*   115(1979)*
Bishop        105(2020)*   109(2000)*   108(2020)*   108(2020)*
Needles       120(2020)    121(2020)*   121(1993)*   120(1993)*
Daggett       114(2000)    113(2020)*   115(1995)*   117(1986)*
Kingman       110(2020)    112(2020)*   106(2020)*   105(1918)*
Desert Rock   109(2000)*   109(1996)*   109(1993)*   109(1993)*
Death Valley  127(1995)    125(2020)*   127(2017)*   126(1993)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      THU, JUL 30  FRI, JUL 31  SAT, AUG 1   SUN, AUG 2
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2019)*    88(2020)*    92(2020)*    91(2024)*
Bishop        72(2022)     67(2018)     71(2007)     71(2007)
Needles       94(2019)     94(1925)     95(1969)     92(1980)*
Daggett       86(2016)     85(2018)     84(2000)*    83(2018)*
Kingman       83(1972)     83(1914)     82(1914)*    82(2008)*
Desert Rock   81(2015)     82(2016)     83(2000)     86(2000)
Death Valley  103(2018)    103(2018)    106(1920)    100(2024)*

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...Woods
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office