811
FXUS66 KSGX 022122
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
122 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Significantly cooler today as a low pressure system moves inland to
the north. This system will also bring stronger and gusty west winds
through this evening in the mountains and deserts. Gusts of 35 to 45
mph are likely in the wind-prone areas. Dry conditions will likely
continue throughout the rest of the week, but then there could be a
slight chance of precipitation later this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A low pressure system moving inland to our north has brough a return
of onshore flow and marine layer low clouds/fog to the coastal areas
and valleys. The strengethening onshore flow is producing gusty
westerly winds, mainly in the mountain passes and on adjacent desert
slopes. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph are expected through this evening in
the wind-favored locations before the winds weaken on Tuesday. Today
will be significantly cooler than recent days, with high
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s in the coastal areas and high
deserts, the 70s in the inland valleys, the 50s to 60s in the
mountains and the 80s to near 90 in the low deserts. These
temperatures are still near or a little above seasonal averages,
especially in the low deserts where it could be as much as 10-13
degrees above seasonal averages.

Numerical model solutions remain in good agreement through Thursday
with respect to the synoptic pattern. As the low pressure system
moves into the Rockies and a weak transient ridge of high pressure
moves over SoCal, temperatures will rebound somewhat on Tue and Wed,
mainly in the inland valleys where high temperatures will reach the
upper 70s. Continuing onshore flow will maintain a marine layer
presence, with low clouds and fog in the coastal areas and inland
valleys during the nights and mornings.

Another low pressure system moving inland to our north on Thursday
will bring another brief round of gusty west winds to the mtns and
deserts, mainly on Thursday. It will also bring a deepening of the
marine layer...possibly enough to produce patchy drizzle west of the
mtns Thursday morning. Temperatures will dip again for Thursday and
Friday, returning to near seasonal averages and even a little below
seasonal averages in portions of the mtns and high deserts.

Beyond Friday...numerical model solutions diverge significantly but
the medium-range deterministic models are all in agreement with the
upper trough deepening to the southwest, forming a closed upper low
near or a little south of SoCal by Saturday. A majority of ensemble
members now show a similar solution so forecast confidence is
improving. This pattern is likely to bring a warming trend as
offshore flow develops, with northeast flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
021730Z....Coast...Patchy low clouds may linger along the coast,
locally in the western valleys through 20Z. Low clouds will
redevelop 06-08Z Tue. Low cloud coverage will remain patchy with
clouds at the coast and in portions of the valleys. Cigs will likely
be 1000-1500 feet MSL. Vis restrictions 1-3SM in BR on higher
terrain. Low clouds and fog will clear 17-19Z Tue.

Otherwise...VFR with SCT high clouds. Areas of gusty northwest winds
25-35 knots in the mountains and deserts between through 08Z Tue.
Mod up/downdrafts in lee of ridges. Locally reduced vis in BLDU in
deserts.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest wind gusts exceeding 20 knots mainly around San
Clemente Island will generate locally choppy seas this afternoon and
evening. There is a Small Craft Advisory in effect through 9 PM.
Northwest winds may increase again Wednesday afternoon/evening into
Thursday. Winds in the outer waters will start to increase
Wednesday, spreading closer to the coast by Thursday afternoon.
Peak wind gusts of 20-25 kt expected.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Waters from
     San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm
     out including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...CO

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office