951
FXUS66 KSGX 151850
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1050 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty Santa Ana winds will diminish today, then return on Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday with the stronger gusts mostly 45 mph
or less. Some patchy night and morning low clouds and fog could
return near the coast for early Thursday and early Friday. High
temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the
valleys will continue through Saturday followed be a gradual
cooling trend for the early an middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Tonight through tomorrow night...

Mild Santa Ana conditions continue to persist. There will be a few
passing high clouds and gusty winds across some of the higher
terrain and through the passes. It will still be on the mild side,
with temperatures within the inland valleys and the IE getting up
into the mid 80s for some areas. Gusty winds will begin to decouple
and diminish going into the later evening hours. Weak offshore winds
and clear skies overnight will lead to some sufficient radiational
cooling, although temperatures will be slightly warmer than they
were the previous night so the probability of any patchy areas of
frost within the wind-protected valleys, although there still is a
minimal threat for some of the higher valleys. HREF guidance is
suggesting that the marine layer will begin to return later tonight
into tomorrow morning, although this should be mainly confined just
along the coast if it does form, and likely be spotty in terms of
broken coverage. There will also be the possibility of some areas of
fog as well right along the coast, and possibly within some of the
inland valleys extending to around 5 to 10 miles inland for San
Diego and Orange counties.

Friday through Tuesday...

Mild to moderate Santa Ana conditions will continue to diminish
through this weekend as the pressure gradient weakens with the ridge
expanding northwestward. As this occurs, the ridge axis will become
more elongated and negatively tilted, which will act as a blocking
pattern and keep the dry conditions persisting through the beginning
of next week, with only a gradual cooldown as some troughing to the
east over central CONUS does help to influence the region with
cooler air advection from the north, although with the ridge still
in control, along with weak downsloping winds, temperatures will
remain above average. Weak offshore winds overnight will
predominantly keep any development of the marine layer mostly
confined over the coastal waters and right along the coast through
the weekend, although there will be a better surge of the marine
layer going into the early half of next week with more of the
fog/low clouds penetrating further into the inland areas of San
Diego and Orange counties with the inversion beginning to lift and
onshore flow continues to be more persistent. Looking a bit beyond
the forecast, ensembles are still hinting a return in the chance of
precipitation towards the end of next week as there begins a change
in the longwave pattern with a break down in the ridge over the E
Pac waters, which may allow for some showers to impact the region as
early as Thursday of next week as the GFS deterministic model
alludes to, with a cooldown also going into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
151630Z...Predominately clear skies with VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. Gusty winds out of the northeast up to 30-40
kts mainly in foothills and near mountain passes with corridors of
gusts 20-30 kts stretching into into adjacent inland valleys until
20Z. Mod up/downdrafts and local LLWS are possible in lee of
mountains. Patchy, intermittent fog/low clouds will be possible (40-
50%) at coastal TAF sites beginning as early as 05Z Friday for
southern San Diego County and around 10-11Z Friday for northern San
Diego County and Orange County. Bases as low as 200-500 ft MSL
possible with visibility 1-3 SM. Any low clouds that form should
begin to clear after 15-18Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Stewey
AVIATION/MARINE...Villafane

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office