067
FXUS65 KPSR 220500
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1000 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with pockets of light rainfall will continue
across southeast California and southwest Arizona through Saturday.

- This weather system will keep moving east through the weekend
bringing scattered showers to central and eastern Arizona Saturday
and Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will remain below normal this weekend, then return to
near normal levels by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The secondary upper level trough that originate from the Pacific NW
has now made it just off the coast of Southern CA. With it brought
an increase in low to mid level moisture across SE CA and SW AZ.
This has bumped PWATS to ~0.9-1.1" in the western parts of our
region, bringing additional rounds of showers this morning with
rainfall totals already between 0.5-.8" across most of the Lower
Colorado River area. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 11pm
PST/12am MST tonight as another 0.25-0.50" can be expected
throughout this afternoon/evening. Fortunately or unfortunately,
depending if you view the glass half full or half empty, the core of
this current weather system is expected to move more quickly than
the previous system and is forecasted to be over SE CA/SW AZ by late
Saturday night. This will keep temperatures below normal for a
couple more days with highs barely tipping over 60 degrees today, in
the low to mid 60s Saturday, and warming slightly Sunday with highs
in the high 60s to near 70 in some locations.

For Central and Eastern AZ PWATS are currently ~0.4-0.6", but will
increase to just shy of 1" by early Sunday morning as the trough
moves northeastward through Central AZ. this will have activity
lingering throughout the weekend but, most activity will remain
light/sprinkles and most may only be virga showers for the Phoenix
Metro, and potential for 0.1-0.2" in the higher terrain and Gila
County. Models show no instability with this round of activity, so
no thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern portions of
the state. Similar to the western portions of our region, afternoon
highs are expected to remain below normal for a few more days with
temperatures throughout Central AZ peaking today in the mid 60s,
warming slightly for Saturday to the low 70s, then cooling back to
the mid 60s on Sunday as the low pressure system exits our region.
As just mentioned the low will be east of AZ Sunday night and
quickly advect into the Plains on Monday. By then PWATS across the
Desert SW will be back to under 0.7" nilling further shower activity
by Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As we move into next week calm and tranquil weather conditions make
a return to the Desert Southwest. The low pressure system that will
bring rain to the region this weekend will be well to the east of
the region by Monday. In the wake of the low pressure system,
heights aloft will be around 574-577 dm on Monday slowly rising to
around 578-581 dm by Thursday. This will result in a gradual warming
trend through the workweek, with temperatures returning to near
normal as early as Tuesday. Across the lower deserts afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to range from the mid 60s to low 70s
rising to the low to mid 70s by the end of the workweek. For the
higher terrain areas, afternoon highs on Monday will be in the low
60s rising to the upper 60s to low 70s by the end of the workweek.
Additionally morning lows will range from the mid 40s to low 50s
across the lower deserts and in the low to mid 40s across the higher
terrain through the workweek. With rising heights aloft, forecast
confidence is very good that dry conditions will prevail through
this coming workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Other than some potential variability in wind directions late this
evening, the likelihood of SHRA Saturday evening/overnight will the
primary weather issue under persistent cloud decks with bases
frequently in a 080-100 AGL range, then possibly lowering late in
the period. KPHX may experience some wind direction variability
before midnight, however confidence is good that east winds will
settle across the region much of Saturday morning and afternoon
before veering S/SW around sunset. More uncertainty exists Saturday
evening, however most guidance suggests -SHRA with lowering cigs
entering the metro mid/late evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periods of RA, local MVFR cigs, and potential for MVFR vsby will be
weather issues through Saturday afternoon before flight conditions
improve. With N/NW winds generally prevailing, flight categories
should be worst and persist the longest at KIPL where occasional
MVFR cigs may occur with the next round of -RA late tonight and
Saturday morning. Confidence is good that -RA ends at KBLH late
tonight with improving conditions by sunrise and throughout the day.
However, continued -RA with the potential for reduced vsby and
lowered cigs will continue into Saturday morning and early afternoon
at KIPL before improving late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures and elevated moisture will remain in place
keeping MinRHs in a 40-70% range following excellent overnight
recovery greater than 80%. Locally gusty winds upwards of 20 mph
will be possible at times, though weaker wind speeds will be more
common through the period. A weather system will be  moving mainly
across the western districts today leading to very good chances for
wetting rains with more scattered shower activity across the eastern
districts Saturday through Sunday, with Sunday expected to be the
final day of activity. Temperatures will mostly remain below normal
through the weekend with humidities staying elevated. Temperatures
will return to near normal as early as Tuesday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Berislavich

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office