714
FXUS66 KLOX 030007
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
407 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/148 PM.

Gusty northwest to northeast winds will continue through the week.
Otherwise, clear skies and near to slightly above normal
temperatures are expected, peaking this coming weekend when gusty
Santa Ana winds are possible. No meaningful precipitation is
expected through at least early next week, though some light
showers are possible in the Grapevine region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...02/218 PM.

A tricky pattern this week so confidence in the short term
forecast, particularly with temperatures, is lower than usual.
Weak high pressure aloft will continue through at least tomorrow
with light offshore flow returning. This should lead to a few
degrees of warming most areas.

A trough will move into northern California Wednesday and into
southeastern California Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
This will swing gradients towards onshore likely resulting a few
degrees of cooling most areas Wednesday, but more so near the
coast. Later in the afternoon and overnight, as that trough
continues to drop south, northerly winds will start increasing
across the mountains, reaching at least wind advisory levels
there as well as southern Santa Barbara County and possibly parts
of the Antelope Valley as well. There`s a 30-40% chance of wind
gusts as high as 60 mph in the mountains that night.

The trough will also contain some moisture which will likely
manifest in some light rain or snow showers Wednesday night into
Thursday morning on the north facing slopes from the Grapevine
area west to the interior Santa Barbara Mountains. Amount will be
generally a quarter inch or less with an inch or two of snow
possible above 4500 feet.

Breezy and cool conditions will continue into Thursday for the
mountains and higher valleys. Downsloping flow off the mountains
will moderate temperatures closer to sea level but a moderate
onshore breeze in the afternoon will keep temperatures around 70
plus or minus 3 degrees.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...02/240 PM.

The tricky pattern gets trickier Friday into the weekend as models
are indicating another cutoff low dropping into southern
California, this one approaching from the northeast and
potentially cooler with 500mb hights dropping to the 550s. There
is less moisture with this one so little to no chance for any
precip, but increasing chances for gusty Santa Ana winds, and
potentially damaging winds as a northeasterly upper jet of 130kt
aligns favorably with winds closer to the surface. Will see how
this pattern evolves over the coming days but if this pattern
continues in the models there is the potential for widespread
warning level winds across the LA/Ventura Counties Saturday.

Another day of offshore flow Sunday winds spreading into areas
north of Pt Conception as well, but not quite as windy as Saturday
for LA/Ventura Counties.

Some models are indicating a rapid warm up Saturday and Sunday
with the offshore flow but there is a large error window with this
pattern based on the uncertainty of the upper low movement so
confidence in the temperature forecast remains low at this time.

Models are indicating the upper low will linger into early next
week with a small potential for some wrap around moisture from the
southeast, but most solutions keep any rain south of LA County.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0006Z.

At 23Z over KLAX, the marine layer depth was 1000 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 2500 feet with a
temperature around 15 degrees Celsius.

There is a chance for IFR/MVFR ceilings tonight into Tuesday
morning at KPRB (70%) KSMX (20%) KSBA (20%) KOXR (30%) KCMA (20%)
KSMO (50%) KLAX (60%) KLGB (70%) KBUR (20%). Otherwise high
confidence in VFR. The current gusty west winds will lower by
around 03Z with weaker winds expected through Tuesday. LLWS 5-10
knots possible at KSBP tonight.

KLAX...60% chance of ceilings 008-012 in the 09-18Z window.
Otherwise high confidence in VFR through Tuesday. East winds are
likely Tuesday morning, but high confidence in staying below 8
knots.

KBUR...20% chance of IFR ceilings 12-15Z Tuesday, otherwise high
confidence in VFR.

&&

.MARINE...02/121 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in
exists in the forecast for seas. There is a moderate chance that
seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially
between Wednesday and Friday.

Widespread SCA level winds will develop through this afternoon
across the entire waters. Local GALE FORCE gusts will likely
occur in the vicinity of the Channel Islands in an area from
Anacapa Island to Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Winds
will diminish some tonight and into Tuesday morning. There is a
moderate chance (30-40 percent) chance that winds could drop below
SCA levels more quickly than anticipated across nearshore waters
along the Central Coast and inside the southern California bight.

Marine conditions will deteriorate between Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday evening. SCA level winds will likely affect the
waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast through Tuesday afternoon
and night. Then, widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) will
develop between Wednesday and Friday. There is a high (50-60
percent) chance of GALES for the waters southwest through
northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast from early Wednesday through Thursday morning.

An offshore flow pattern will establish between Thursday and
Friday and there is a moderate chance of SCA level winds inside
the southern California bight and the nearshore waters along the
Central Coast Friday and Saturday in particular.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 349-351>353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PST tonight
      for zone 372. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
      Thursday morning for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through late
      Wednesday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...RK
MARINE...RM/Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office