095
FXUS66 KLOX 021940
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1140 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...02/937 AM.

Gusty northwest to northeast winds will continue through the week.
Otherwise, clear skies and above normal temperatures are
expected, peaking this coming weekend. No meaningful precipitation
is expected through at least early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...02/948 AM.

***UPDATE***

Winds and above normal temperatures will be the main weather
topics this week and likely into next week. Highs will be 5-10
degrees above normal all week but with a little dip in temps
Thursday as an inside slider trough swings through the area. Some
light north slope showers are possible late Wednesday into
Thursday as that moves through.

***From Previous Discussion***

Tuesday will feature a few degrees of warming as the trough exits
and a weak, pop up ridge nudges its way into the West Coast. The
greatest degree of warming looks to be focused more on the Central
Coast as Santa Lucia winds increase to around 30-40 mph through
the morning across the coastal mountains and slopes. A weak to
moderate Santa Ana (30-40 mph) will also occur, but its effects
seem mostly limited to the Western San Gabriel and Santa Lucia
Mountains.

The short-lived, weak ridge will quickly be replaced by another
trough on Wednesday. The trough will slide across Northern
California Wednesday, then begin to dive to the south and east by
Wednesday night. This synoptic scale change will facilitate
widespread cooling of at least a few degrees, but more
importantly, it will initiate a period of widespread advisory to
locally warning level winds. Winds will generally be northerly to
northwesterly on Wednesday. The north slopes of LA and VTA
counties may get some light rain late Wednesday night as well.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...02/250 AM.

This upper level pattern has truly given credence to the phrase
a cutoff low is a weathermans woe over the last few days. The
GFS and Euro plus their respective AI models do agree on the
trough moving east into the Great Basin, slightly stalling, then
moving further south. What these models dont necessarily agree on
is the timing that the trough splits into the cutoff low, and the
exact path this low takeswhether it moves more to the west off
the Southern California coast, or east into the Southwest United
States and northern Mexico. There exists a range of outcomes in
terms of wind direction, magnitude, and timing due to these
differences. Regardless of the scenario that comes to fruition,
there will be enough upper support to have confidence in
widespread advisory level north to northeast winds, with a
moderate chance for locally warning level winds focused across
higher elevations during the Thursday-Saturday period across much
of southwest California. Sunday will likely feature weaker
offshore winds, but advisories are still possible during this
time.

If theupper low moves west off the Coast of California, light
rain is possible. The timing, location, and intensity still remain
a question if this scenario plays out, but virtually none of the
EC or EC-AI ensemble members (wetter solutions compared to GFS or
GFS-AI) are very bullish on significant rain at this time.

Temperatures will dip down into the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday
under the influence of the trough, then a gradual warming trend
will be in place through the weekend as offshore winds increase.
By Sunday, warmest valleys will soar up into the 80s yet again.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1939Z.

Around 19Z, the marine layer depth was around 1200 feet deep at
KLAX. The top of the inversion was near 1900 feet with a
temperature around 15 degrees Celsius.

Moderate confidence in wind and clouds except low confidence for
KOXR and KCMA where there is a 50 percent chance that VFR conds
prevail through the period. Weak to moderate LLWS is possible for
coastal and coastal valley TAFs mainly after 03Z, especially
KSMX and KSBP, and through the period for KSBA.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 04Z with low confidence
thereafter. MVFR/IFR conditions could arrive to KLAX as early as
05Z Tuesday, or as late as 11Z with a 20 percent chance that VFR
conds prevail.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. There is a 10 percent chance
of moderate low-level wind shear and turbulence after 03Z
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...02/230 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in the forecast for winds. Less confidence in
exists in the forecast for seas. There is a moderate chance that
seas could be up to 1-3 feet higher than forecast, especially
between Wednesday and Friday.

Widespread SCA level winds will develop through this afternoon
across the entire waters with a moderate to high (30-50 percent)
chance of GALES this afternoon and evening across the south of
Point Sal. Local GALE FORCE gusts will likely occur in the
vicinity of the Channel Islands in an area from Anacapa Island to
Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. Winds will diminish some
tonight and into Tuesday morning. There is a moderate chance
(30-40 percent) chance that winds could drop below SCA levels more
quickly than anticipated across nearshore waters along the
Central Coast and inside the southern California bight.

Marine conditions will deteriorate between Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday evening. SCA level winds will likely affect the
waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands and the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast through Tuesday afternoon
and night. Then, widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) will
develop between Wednesday and Friday. There is a high-to-likely
(50 percent) chance of GALES for the waters southwest through
northwest of the Channel Islands and the nearshore waters along
the Central Coast from early Wednesday through Thursday morning.

An offshore flow pattern will between Thursday and Friday and
there is a moderate chance of SCA level winds inside the southern
California bight and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Tuesday for zones 352-353-376>378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to
      midnight PST tonight for zone 372. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for
      zones 645-650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from late Tuesday night through late
      Wednesday night for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/BL
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office