183
FXUS66 KLOX 151812
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1012 AM PST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/834 AM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry
conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana
winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across
portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. A slow cooling
trend will begin Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...15/850 AM.

A warm and dry air mass remains over southern California as
offshore flow enters its eighth day with several more still to
come. It will be another day of 80s across most coast/valley areas
but like yesterday not quite high enough for records. The 24 hour
temperature change map shows a large area of cooling this morning
through the hwy 14/118 corridor but this is mostly due the drop
off in wind speeds. By the end of the day not expecting
temperatures to deviate too much from yesterdays levels, but
overall likely down 1-3 degrees. Low end wind advisories continue
across inland portions of the LA/Ventura Valleys but that`s
limping along due to the absence of winds aloft. Will be
canceling those for today, though high res models do show a
slight increase in winds Fri/Sat as offshore gradients trend
stronger in response to pressure rises across the Great Basin. As
a result there may be a need to re-issue some advisories
tomorrow.

***From Previous Discussion***

A 589 dam upper high is parked over Redding CA. 585 dam hgts cross
over SBA/VTA/LA counties. The high will weaken over the next few
days and hgts will decrease to 579 dam by Saturday. At the sfc
there will be between 3 and 5 mb of offshore flow through the
period.

Skies today will be clear, but satellite shows low clouds
gathering the west across the outer waters. The decreasing hgts
and not too strong offshore push will likely allow some low
clouds to develop and move into western SBA county and the Long
Beach Torrance area on Friday morning. There is substantial
disagreement with the low cloud forecast on Saturday. The slim majority
of the ensembles bring low clouds to most of the coasts, but a
substantial amount keep enough offshore winds in the area to limit
the low clouds to Friday morning`s locations and nothing more.

Low end wind advisories are in place for the Santa Ana Wind
Corridor through Friday afternoon, but currently the winds are
under performing. The winds will increase during the usual 700am
to 1000am peak, but there is a chc that they will still not reach
advisory levels. Mdls show an uptick in winds compared to today
for Friday morning. Still this portion of the advisory will need
to be evaluated after today`s peak ends. There is not that much
difference in the synoptic parameters from today to tomorrow.

The falling hgts and somewhat weaker offshore flow will bring a
very slight cooling trend of 1-2 degree/day (some sites will see
no change on any of the 3 days) to the area starting today. Max
temps will fall from the upper 70s to mid 80s today to the mid 70s
to lower 80s by Saturday. Max temps will mostly be 8 to 12 degrees
above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...15/1225 AM.

Offshore flow and weak ridging will continue over the state
through the xtnd period, although by Wednesday some changes begin
to occur. The offshore push should not be powerful enough to keep
marine layer stratus away from the coasts where it might generate
some dense fog later at night through the early morning. The
weakening offshore flow and lowering of hgts will contribute to a
continuous cool trend with Sunday`s max temps across the
csts/vlys falling from the 70s to lower 80s to the Mid 60s to
lower 70s by Wednesday. Max temps will be near normal by
Wednesday.

The GFS deterministic run brings a fully formed 552 dam upper low
to the area Friday, while the EC only has dry fast moving NW flow.
The AI mdls and ensembles are much less impressive and while there
is a high chc of a pattern change - the chc of an actual rain
event remains under 40 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1811Z.

Around 17Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature
near 23 degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence exists in flight categories. Less confidence exists in
winds. There is a low chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR
visibilities after 08Z Friday at Los Angeles County coastal
terminals.

There is a moderate to high chance of moderate to occasionally
strong low-level wind shear and turbulence after 10Z Friday.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions or MVFR visibilities after
09Z Friday.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
30 percent chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level
wind shear and turbulence after 10Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...15/907 AM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast overall. Less
confidence in the current forecast for winds. Higher confidence
in the current forecast for seas.

For the inner waters inside the southern California bight,
marginal low-end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level northeast to
east winds will continue nearshore between Rincon Point and Point
Dume through at least this morning. There is a 60 percent chance
that the SCA may be cancelled earlier than the expiration time.
There is a low-to-moderate (20-40 percent) chance of SCA level
winds between late tonight and Friday morning and again Friday
night through Saturday morning, highest between Friday night and
Saturday.

Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels. A long-
period west-to-northwest swell is filling in the region, but wave
heights will stay under 8 feet through the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office